We are used to slow change in the cattle business. After decades at that pace, however, the North American cattle and beef industries are undergoing a rapid transition. “Farming and food production in total are no longer local industries,” said Pete Anderson, Midwest PMS research director.
“Who is going to flinch first?” Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., said that’s the main question he and his team ponder when looking at this “plateau” phase in the ag markets.
If you think you have the cattle feeding business all figured out, you’re probably mistaken. That’s according to speakers at the Feeding Quality Forum in Grand Island, Neb., and Amarillo, Texas, last week. The experts addressed what they “used to know” that’s no longer so.
I’ve been to all but one of the forums, which we’ve held with allied industry partners since 2006, and the overwhelming summary is LOTS of good information.
Seven years ago when Larry Corah suggested adding a people element to the Feeding Quality Forum (FQF) he helped launch in 2006, he certainly didn’t expect to be a recipient of the Industry Achievement Award one day.
If you don’t believe the global factors affecting the U.S. cattle market are numerous and complicated, you probably haven’t heard Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company, give an economic outlook. By 2040, Japan’s population will drop by 25.3 million people. Today, the Black Sea region exports 34% of the world’s wheat. Brazil’s currency, the real, has been weak for several years versus the U.S. dollar.
In a cyclical business, when you’re riding the good times, it probably means you’re not far from the bad ones. So it is with the cattle business, said Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company, as he kicked off the Feeding Quality Forum in La Vista, Neb., and Garden City, Kan., this week. “It’s not like the mid-1980s, with land values collapsing. It’s more like a slow bleed,” Basse said of the general “downturn” in agricultural commodities. Ag equipment sales have slowed, land prices are going down and grain trade has softened as the dollar strengthened.
Paying the feed bill has cleaned out bank accounts faster than Jesse James in recent years, as high corn prices left cattlemen everywhere looking for the cheapest, most efficient alternatives. Answering that search, Galen Erickson shared research results and insight on distillers grains at the Feeding Quality Forums in Omaha, Neb., and Garden City, Kan., in August. As of late summer, the ethanol byproducts were selling at near corn prices. Many cattlemen responded by cutting back or removing it, but Erickson, feedlot Extension specialist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said that could be a mistake.
In a roomful of cattle feeders, an Oklahoma State University (OSU) livestock marketing specialist had everyone’s full attention as he said there is no way around it: In the next two to three years, the already short supply of feeder cattle will only get tighter. OSU Breedlove Professor Derrell Peel described the current feeder cattle situation and the circumstances leading to it at the eighth annual Feeding Quality Forum in Omaha, Neb., and Garden City, Kan., last month.
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