A slow packing sector pace kicked off January 2022 with a quick recovery to more impressive daily harvest levels in February. Carcasses still tracked a heavier path than the prior year from February through early May, finally pulling lower. The annual average carcass weight low appears to have been made during the week of June 13.
Closing out the month of June the boxed beef pricing complex typically undergoes a directional change. However, given the economic anomalies in place this year, cutout values will finish June a bit stronger than in recent years, measured against mid-May prices.
Seasonal factors in the wholesale carcass market are firmly in place this year. The percentage of high-quality grade carcasses in the northern mix continues down an exaggerated decline. Typically, the bulk of premium grade carcasses are generated in the north, with Nebraska being the largest volume producer of Prime and CAB brand carcasses
Carcass weights are always top of mind for us in spring as we try to keep buyers and sellers in the cattle and beef markets informed on quality carcass supplies and price implications. This heightened focus is a function of carcass weights tending to find their annual lows in May.
Higher feed costs and challenging summer breakevens may cause carcass outcomes to continue underperforming specific to marbling and premium beef production.
Fewer carcasses in the Prime grade have not resulted in a larger share in Premium Choice. USDA data shows the percentage of Choice carcasses certified for Premium Choice branded beef programs is currently lower than in any of the past four years, albeit fractionally so.
Prime trends continue to chart new territory for the most premium quality grade and current conditions show reason for incentive. A potential directional shift up and to the right on the premium chart is not out of the question.
The redundancy of higher corn prices in the market discussion is bound to grow old, but it’s an important feature of the fed cattle trade now and will be moving forward. Cattle feeders have been more willing to sell finished cattle in recent weeks since corn prices have elevated the ration cost and feed conversion efficiency decreases at the end of the feeding period.
In our 2019 report, the aggregate packer CAB premium total came in at $92 million. The 2021 total has seen that total nearly double in only two years, resulting in $182 million in CAB premiums.
Certified Angus Beef carcasses surged during the second week of February posting the largest supply for that timeframe. All the important factors aligned to generate the rapid uptick in qualifying carcasses. Beginning with the fed cattle slaughter, that week featured 8.3% more harvested steers and heifers than the same week in 2021, when the previous record was posted.
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