The redundancy of higher corn prices in the market discussion is bound to grow old, but it’s an important feature of the fed cattle trade now and will be moving forward. Cattle feeders have been more willing to sell finished cattle in recent weeks since corn prices have elevated the ration cost and feed conversion efficiency decreases at the end of the feeding period.
In our 2019 report, the aggregate packer CAB premium total came in at $92 million. The 2021 total has seen that total nearly double in only two years, resulting in $182 million in CAB premiums.
Certified Angus Beef carcasses surged during the second week of February posting the largest supply for that timeframe. All the important factors aligned to generate the rapid uptick in qualifying carcasses. Beginning with the fed cattle slaughter, that week featured 8.3% more harvested steers and heifers than the same week in 2021, when the previous record was posted.
Prime cutout values and grid premiums have been rich in the third and fourth quarters of the past two years. Yet the spillover into the first quarter this year shows that the market is reacting to the recently smaller availability, retreating back to the 2019 supply pace.
The USDA January 1 cow herd inventory, published this Monday, confirmed a 2% decline in the beef cow herd, along with a 1% decline in feeder cattle supplies. This is relatively in line with earlier estimates, although some had projected the beef cow decline fractionally smaller than the USDA number.
Cattle supply is certainly not the issue, rather, it’s a COVID-induced absenteeism issue in many of the country’s packing plants. Packing plants experience increased worker absence, resulting in much smaller slaughter totals so far in January 2022.
Cattle and beef market dynamics in the past year were nothing if not volatile, and in some ways, unprecedented. Supply chain imbalances and processing sector issues have been the focal point of beef price inflation in the past two years.
December has started off on a high note in the fed cattle sector and all of us on the cattle side of the supply chain should be made well aware of what’s ahead in 2022.
Since our September Insider report, the Prime grid premium has amazingly increased by an additional 50%. The latest $30.84/cwt. weighted average packer premium sets the record for the highest reported number in the report.
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