Today’s Premium Choice and Prime beef production volume is monumentally larger than it was in 2006 when just 14% of Angus-type carcasses met CAB specifications, compared to our latest annual average of 36%. The current small drops from record-high production volumes create supply concerns among grocers and restaurant partners in today’s demand-driven environment.
The major shift in corn prices likely doesn’t entice cow/calf producers to consider retained ownership for the first time. Even though prices have been exceptional for calves and feeder cattle, it’s telling to take a look at feedlot breakeven projections to understand where prices are originating.
Recent data shows the Choice carcass category has declined while the Select category has drifted higher. This supply data goes against what beef customers increasingly desire and are willing to pay for premium middle meats, thus rapidly elevating the Prime to Choice cutout value spread.
A slow packing sector pace kicked off January 2022 with a quick recovery to more impressive daily harvest levels in February. Carcasses still tracked a heavier path than the prior year from February through early May, finally pulling lower. The annual average carcass weight low appears to have been made during the week of June 13.
Closing out the month of June the boxed beef pricing complex typically undergoes a directional change. However, given the economic anomalies in place this year, cutout values will finish June a bit stronger than in recent years, measured against mid-May prices.
Seasonal factors in the wholesale carcass market are firmly in place this year. The percentage of high-quality grade carcasses in the northern mix continues down an exaggerated decline. Typically, the bulk of premium grade carcasses are generated in the north, with Nebraska being the largest volume producer of Prime and CAB brand carcasses
Carcass weights are always top of mind for us in spring as we try to keep buyers and sellers in the cattle and beef markets informed on quality carcass supplies and price implications. This heightened focus is a function of carcass weights tending to find their annual lows in May.
Higher feed costs and challenging summer breakevens may cause carcass outcomes to continue underperforming specific to marbling and premium beef production.
Fewer carcasses in the Prime grade have not resulted in a larger share in Premium Choice. USDA data shows the percentage of Choice carcasses certified for Premium Choice branded beef programs is currently lower than in any of the past four years, albeit fractionally so.
Prime trends continue to chart new territory for the most premium quality grade and current conditions show reason for incentive. A potential directional shift up and to the right on the premium chart is not out of the question.
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