Just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday we’re resting on what has been a solid holiday run-up in beef carcass cutout values. Spot cattle and boxed beef prices diverge, while CAB makes its way into China.
From a feedyard’s perspective, the fourth-quarter quality spreads are an important seasonal factor. Many feeders with high-quality Angus genetics in their inventory procure cattle with the expectation that carcass quality premiums will be near their annual highs during this period.
Producers merchandizing their spring calf crop the second week of October were likely relatively pleased with the outcome, while those marketing in the subsequent week were handed a difficult dose of reality. Volatility is alive and well. The fact that premiums exist and opportunities to charge more for higher quality are the drivers of the system.
Supplies of market-ready cattle are simply not as burdensome as they were just weeks ago. As a matter of fact, feedyard showlists from north to south across the major feeding states are smaller this week than a year ago.
The brand recently announced two additional carcass spec modifications to further enhance opportunities for stakeholders. As we ease toward October, feedyard managers will remain hopeful for increasing values in both cash cattle and deferred live cattle futures contracts.
Seven weeks of slight improvements in fed cattle pricing came to a halt as packers paid $1 to $2/cwt. less for fed cattle last week. The USDA Cattle on Feed Report, published the Friday before, had some influence, with the August 1 on-feed number posting a record high for the date.
Spot market carcass cutout values are subject to anomalies. Protein buyers may take advantage of opportunities in seasonal shifts, market disruptions or other unexpected changes in supply and demand.
Fed cattle prices have stabilized and improved in the later part of July, but are still lower than a year ago. With a backlog of cattle on feed longer, greater eligibility is joining up with higher quality grades to increase July certified head counts above those seen a year ago.
The past couple of weeks have offered little excitement in the fed cattle trade. Consumer driven economic signals have been passed back to producers because the marketplace has been allowed to differentiate price for cattle and beef product based on quality specifications and other merits.
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