The boxed beef market is nearing the conclusion of the final price push for high demand middle meats. The window is quickly closing on wholesale orders that will ship in time for consumers to shop ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Gross cow/calf returns have exceeded expectations as the shrinking calf supply and strong beef demand collude to drive higher receipts. Even so, turnaround from the depth of the latest drought that brought beef cow harvest to a cyclical peak in 2022 has been slow to develop.
The fourth quarter tends to be the period most prone to follow historical seasonal patterns for carcass cutout prices. Although annual price levels have certainly advanced to record levels, the pattern in spot market values from October through December tends to track a pattern.
Feeders will continue to reap rewards in the cost and return equation in a market that has recently moved to higher prices. Grid-sold cattle are, on average, capturing Choice and Prime quality premiums at a higher percentage rate this fall. Yet, yield grade and heavy-weight discounts threaten to devalue premiums for the heavy pens of steers, in addition to fewer CAB qualifiers.
With U.S. beef cow numbers projected to decline by 200,000 head in 2024, supplying downstream brand partners with product becomes even more challenging. Understanding why roughly 64% of eligible carcasses are unsuccessful in reaching the brand’s 10 specifications is a big step toward informing cattlemen of their opportunity to capture more dollars through improved carcass quality.
In early August, USDA turned on a new internet dashboard tool providing user-friendly access to more detailed fed cattle pricing information. Using data already captured by the agency through Livestock Mandatory Reporting (LMR), the dashboard takes a big step in improving user access and utility of the data.
The Choice-Select price spread has long been held as the industry’s barometer for the differential in consumer demand for high-quality, well-marbled beef and the leaner counterpart consisting of only slight degrees of marbling. However, using the current Choice carcass premium to Select as a gauge for consumer demand is misleading.
Meeting the demand for the Certified Angus Beef ® brand during the 1980s was relatively easy—we would just add another packing plan to certify carcasses and increase brand supply. Today opportunities for supply growth are more challenging, given that 85% of the U.S. packing volume is licensed under the brand. Thus, supply dynamics come down to one fickle component: the quality of the cattle.
The fed cattle market was defensive last week, pressured by slippage in boxed beef values and an underperforming futures market. Taking a broader view, the USDA Prime grade has been the beneficiary of longer feeding periods with the national average Prime share at 10.5%.
Easily one of the top themes for the first half of 2024, carcass weights have averaged a 21 lb. surplus above the same time a year ago. In the past seven weeks, the weight increase bulged to average 32 lb. heavier than a year ago. Read more of the details in the CAB Insider.