In the second and third quarters this year, carcass cutout values have risen at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, fed cattle harvest levels fell from just a 0.5% deficit in the first quarter to averaging near 8% below last year beginning in March.
With fed cattle supplies projected to tighten even further into 2026, we aren’t equipped to mark any peak on the price charts for this phase of the supply cycle. What does appear evident is that, despite total beef market fluctuations, consumer demand for marbling-rich carcasses meeting consumer expectations are generating substantially larger premiums and gross dollars, compared to the average, than they were under similar market circumstances in 2014.
Certified Angus Beef ® brand supply trends will continue to see the push and pull of cattle management responding to tight cattle supplies. Estimates for this year’s corn crop suggest an exceptionally large yield, continuing downward price pressure. This, coupled with freshly printed record replacement feeder cattle prices, will work to entrench the modern feedyard motivation to push days on feed to new heights with carcass weights following along to new records.
CAB carcass certification rates unsurprisingly mirror the contrast seen in the grading data. While carcasses must meet all 10 specifications, the importance of the marbling specification in brand acceptance lends the trend to follow regional grade tendencies.
Beef demand has been exceptional because of dramatic increases in consumer satisfaction for a few decades. Since taste ranks at the top of the list when it comes to what drives consumers to choose beef, we know where our figurative “bread is buttered.”
Summer weather has begun to set in with more regions of the country set to experience hotter temperatures. This means the traditional turning of consumer focus toward hamburgers and hot dogs rather than steaks, the spring favorite.
Wholesale and retail beef buyers have been preparing for weeks ahead of the spike in consumer beef buying associated with warmer weather and holiday grilling demand.
In a twist unthinkable just two decades ago, USDA data reveals that the current percentage of Prime carcasses has averaged 11.9%, surpassing Select carcasses that are averaging 11.1%, in each of the last five weeks.
High quality steak and roast items such as ribeyes, strip loins, tenderloins and sirloins carry an outsized share of the load when it comes to generating pricing separation up and down the carcass quality spectrum.
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