Most recent USDA quality grade data updates carcass grading trends through May 19. This is precisely the week on the calendar at which the percentage of carcasses meeting USDA Prime marbling levels have sharply decreased in each of the past three years.
Now, we’re well into the second quarter of 2023, but backing up to the first of the year, there have been two overriding trends in the fed cattle supply. The first of which has been those fewer headcounts that we’ve seen harvested on a weekly basis, down about 2.7% year to date as well.
Current carcass values are being underpinned by positive price moves from several carcass cuts, and we’ve just named a few. The classic spring price rally from ribs is in a counter-seasonal pattern and strips are modestly sideways. End users are seeking value items to partially offset shorter supplies and higher prices.
As you’re contemplating the future impact of today’s genetic decisions, consider the marketability of both feeder calves and potential replacement heifer progeny. There are plenty of sires that excel in EPD rankings for a variety of maternal, production and carcass traits to advance the goals of the cow-calf and feedyard sectors.
Feed cattle carcass weights have tracked a decidedly lower course this winter with the steer/heifer mix 18 lb. lighter since January 1. Winter weather has left a lasting mark on feedyard performance this season as feed efficiency has slipped away and industry production pounds followed lower.
While there are several styles of contracts represented in the library perhaps the take-home message is that there are fewer mysteries within the library than one may have thought. Carcass outcomes are widely emphasized in the contract mix and quality is the largest driver of premiums and discounts.
If there was a lesson in 2022, it was that the beef market is very sensitive to declines in quality grade, as evidenced through price signals. It’s the first time in recent history where we’ve gone backwards — albeit ever so slightly — and customers are telling us they have unfulfilled demand. That’s reflected in the premiums paid, and that’s saying something after two years of extremely high premiums.
With beef supplies tighter this year, year-to-date supplies are only fractionally smaller than a year ago. Yet the second quarter promises rapid tightening of fed cattle availability just as spring grilling demand will ramp up. Cattle supplies will be the opposite of robust, and boxed beef values will reflect it with sharp upward moves.
Among cattlemen who understand the math to determine the price for a set of feeder cattle, the question becomes: “How are these feeder cattle bringing so much money?” Mind you, it depends a lot on one’s perspective and sector as to whether or not this conversation comes up. After all, prices are highly variable, as are cattle and regional supply/demand dynamics.
Diving into 2023, the much-discussed beef cow herd culling comes home to roost, bringing on a supply challenge for the beef industry. Everyone downstream from the packer needs to be prepared to see more frequent, potentially wider price spreads for quality within the shrinking supply setting.