The Choice/Select spread and CAB/Choice spreads narrowed in last week’s trade as ribeye and strip loin prices fell. Higher than normal first-quarter middle meat prices were responsible for some of the wider quality price spreads since the first of the year.
So far in 2021, Choice carcasses are at a higher premium to Select than in any of the previous five years. This is important, not because Choice carcasses are the production target, but because the producer’s share of the Choice premium is the foundation on which CAB and Prime premiums are added.
Extreme winter conditions and temperatures well below zero have been widespread across the country impacting most of the major central cattle feeding region. History in our CAB data shows us that grade generally improves, rather than declines, during periods of extreme cold.
When cattle prices and producer sentiment are lackluster, sometimes it’s nice to look to a bright spot in the market. At CAB, a recent snapshot of December export data provides some interesting fodder, and something to get excited about.
The large shift to retail business, accompanied with stifled restaurant and export trade, subtly show in the shifts in dollar contributions of each primal. Where customers purchased beef influenced which beef cuts outperformed or underperformed last year.
Supply factors took center stage for cattlemen in the past year as COVID-19 ravaged the marketplace. The backlog of finished cattle, carcass weights and price discovery have been such burning issues for months now it’s been hard to free up mental space for anything else.
We can’t count all the reasons why 2020 needs to find a hasty exit, but at least we can hope that a new year will bring on new dynamics for the cattle industry. We know we’re facing a first quarter in 2021 that will test our resolve.
Just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday we’re resting on what has been a solid holiday run-up in beef carcass cutout values. Spot cattle and boxed beef prices diverge, while CAB makes its way into China.
From a feedyard’s perspective, the fourth-quarter quality spreads are an important seasonal factor. Many feeders with high-quality Angus genetics in their inventory procure cattle with the expectation that carcass quality premiums will be near their annual highs during this period.
Producers merchandizing their spring calf crop the second week of October were likely relatively pleased with the outcome, while those marketing in the subsequent week were handed a difficult dose of reality. Volatility is alive and well. The fact that premiums exist and opportunities to charge more for higher quality are the drivers of the system.
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