The current cattle markets can provide a history lesson for those new to the scene. To give a quick recap of that era: record-high prices, fueled by a supply chain starved for cattle numbers, came to an abrupt end. This signaled the end of tight cattle supplies, caused by drought liquidation, and beef cattle producers were able to restock the nation’s cow herd.
The brand’s commitment to aggregating winning outcomes is reliant on the relevance of the brand’s carcass specifications to each sector of the beef industry, and ultimately the consumer. This commitment to evolve as the overall industry progresses has resulted in the brand’s recent adjustment of the hot carcass weight maximum to 1,100 lb.
The brand recorded the second largest ever sales volume in fiscal 2022 with total sales culminating in 1.234 billion pounds, a 1.6% increase on the prior year. The sum was narrowly below the brand’s 2019 record 1.25 billion pounds sold.
Following beef quality grade trends may not be as exciting as college football, but for beef marketers quality grade is the game. This season is nothing short of dynamic, as we’ve been waiting on improvement in what has been a subpar carcass marbling achievement across the northern tier of cattle feeding country most of this year.
Today’s Premium Choice and Prime beef production volume is monumentally larger than it was in 2006 when just 14% of Angus-type carcasses met CAB specifications, compared to our latest annual average of 36%. The current small drops from record-high production volumes create supply concerns among grocers and restaurant partners in today’s demand-driven environment.
The major shift in corn prices likely doesn’t entice cow/calf producers to consider retained ownership for the first time. Even though prices have been exceptional for calves and feeder cattle, it’s telling to take a look at feedlot breakeven projections to understand where prices are originating.
Recent data shows the Choice carcass category has declined while the Select category has drifted higher. This supply data goes against what beef customers increasingly desire and are willing to pay for premium middle meats, thus rapidly elevating the Prime to Choice cutout value spread.
A slow packing sector pace kicked off January 2022 with a quick recovery to more impressive daily harvest levels in February. Carcasses still tracked a heavier path than the prior year from February through early May, finally pulling lower. The annual average carcass weight low appears to have been made during the week of June 13.
Closing out the month of June the boxed beef pricing complex typically undergoes a directional change. However, given the economic anomalies in place this year, cutout values will finish June a bit stronger than in recent years, measured against mid-May prices.
Seasonal factors in the wholesale carcass market are firmly in place this year. The percentage of high-quality grade carcasses in the northern mix continues down an exaggerated decline. Typically, the bulk of premium grade carcasses are generated in the north, with Nebraska being the largest volume producer of Prime and CAB brand carcasses
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