Certified Angus Beef carcasses surged during the second week of February posting the largest supply for that timeframe. All the important factors aligned to generate the rapid uptick in qualifying carcasses. Beginning with the fed cattle slaughter, that week featured 8.3% more harvested steers and heifers than the same week in 2021, when the previous record was posted.
Prime cutout values and grid premiums have been rich in the third and fourth quarters of the past two years. Yet the spillover into the first quarter this year shows that the market is reacting to the recently smaller availability, retreating back to the 2019 supply pace.
Starting in March 2020, disarray set in motion a chain of events leading to the fed cattle backlog from plant closures slowing the supply chain throughout 2021. While the market likes to avoid the unkown, the last two years put the beef business in uncharted territory.
The USDA January 1 cow herd inventory, published this Monday, confirmed a 2% decline in the beef cow herd, along with a 1% decline in feeder cattle supplies. This is relatively in line with earlier estimates, although some had projected the beef cow decline fractionally smaller than the USDA number.
Cattle supply is certainly not the issue, rather, it’s a COVID-induced absenteeism issue in many of the country’s packing plants. Packing plants experience increased worker absence, resulting in much smaller slaughter totals so far in January 2022.
Cattle and beef market dynamics in the past year were nothing if not volatile, and in some ways, unprecedented. Supply chain imbalances and processing sector issues have been the focal point of beef price inflation in the past two years.
December has started off on a high note in the fed cattle sector and all of us on the cattle side of the supply chain should be made well aware of what’s ahead in 2022.
Since our September Insider report, the Prime grid premium has amazingly increased by an additional 50%. The latest $30.84/cwt. weighted average packer premium sets the record for the highest reported number in the report.
Our analysis of several million head in 2019 and 2020 shows that increasing average carcass weights across each load lot returned a net benefit in carcasses qualifying for the CAB brand up to 900 lb.
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