Seven weeks of slight improvements in fed cattle pricing came to a halt as packers paid $1 to $2/cwt. less for fed cattle last week. The USDA Cattle on Feed Report, published the Friday before, had some influence, with the August 1 on-feed number posting a record high for the date.
Spot market carcass cutout values are subject to anomalies. Protein buyers may take advantage of opportunities in seasonal shifts, market disruptions or other unexpected changes in supply and demand.
Fed cattle prices have stabilized and improved in the later part of July, but are still lower than a year ago. With a backlog of cattle on feed longer, greater eligibility is joining up with higher quality grades to increase July certified head counts above those seen a year ago.
The past couple of weeks have offered little excitement in the fed cattle trade. Consumer driven economic signals have been passed back to producers because the marketplace has been allowed to differentiate price for cattle and beef product based on quality specifications and other merits.
Packers have proven capable of not only large weekly production but of daily headcounts on par or larger than a year ago. The turnaround in the cattle cycle and the abnormalities of 2020 will further incentivize producers to shrink the nation’s herd.
With increased boxed product supplies comes a strong demand from the buying side to secure previously scarce supplies. These days, price is more favorable for end users. Fed cattle supplies are overwhelming and packer margins still leave room for boxes to be marked cheaper on larger production volume.
Federally inspected headcounts have seen rapid recovery since the lows experienced in April. For the past two weeks, the FI harvested headcount has been 86% and 89% of the same two weeks a year ago. Fed cattle prices have remained steady, averaging $116/cwt., with carcass weights steadily creeping higher.
From a beef demand perspective, nothing is normal as we are just a week removed now from all-time cutout highs. However, end-users are still buying what beef they can and consumers are generally clearing meat case inventories.
The challenges presented now are very important to cattlemen and brand partners up and down the chain. However, the health of people at the packing level and throughout the country is the priority that must receive full focus and priority.
The many challenges the beef market is facing today are serious short term problems but are not indicative of long term trends. Price and demand signals will also realign as the pandemic subsides. The interrupted flow of cattle and boxed beef has implications now impacting the pricing structure on a carcass value basis.
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