PRIME CONTINUES TO CLIMB

The nation’s carcass marbling achievement has never been richer, as USDA data reports the latest record-high USDA Prime share at 15.55% of fed cattle. Year to date, the Prime grade has recorded weekly values of 14% or higher. With USDA Choice giving incremental ground to the growing Prime category, the two grades combine to chart a record 88.1% for the first quarter. In contrast, USDA Select carcasses comprised a new record-low 8% of fed carcasses during March.

Historic highs in marbling outcomes logically suggest that the Certified Angus Beefbrand would similarly capture record volumes of Angus-type carcasses, given the brand’s focus on quality and its  Modest 00 (Premium Choice) or higher marbling requirement. The importance of marbling among the brand’s 10 carcass specifications can’t be overstated. Several million Angus-type carcasses (often more than 2 million annually) have been evaluated using detailed data since 2012, revealing that 82% to 95% of carcasses failing to meet brand requirements did so due to insufficient marbling. Consequently, the greatest opportunity for improvement or failure in CAB certification rates lies within the marbling specification.

However, in the midst of record-high nationwide marbling outcomes, the brand’s certification rate in March fell to 37% of eligible carcasses – less than impressive in contrast to 41.8% in March 2025. As confusing as this seems, current feedlot economics tell the rest of the story. Cheap corn, increased days on feed and temperate feeding weather combined to push average carcass weights to new heights in March. Twenty-pound leaps in year-over-year weight increases have been a hallmark of the past two years. But the trend since December has held weights to a higher plane than ever. This means that average steer carcasses in the 980+ lb. range yield a record proportion surpassing the brand’s 1,100 lb. upper limit. Our 2025 annual data review indicated that, of the eligible carcasses failing to meet brand standards, 14.5% of the cause was due to carcasses exceeding 1,100 lb., a significant increase from 8.6% in 2024. It’s a safe bet that this carcass weight fallout rate was higher than 14.5% in the first quarter this year, given that steer weights have not dropped below 981 lb., year to date.

Longer feedlot stays have also generated a steady increase in external carcass fat in recent years. This was highlighted by the 2025 uptick to 9.8% of certification failures in the dataset exceeding the maximum allowable 1-inch backfact thickness. Fallout from excess backfat was basically unchanged, in the 7-8% range, from 2022 to 2024, but will likely be reported higher again in 2026 if first-quarter finished weights are any indication.

In March 2025, the brand adjusted the upper limit for ribeye area from 16 to 17 sq. inches. The move aligned with the evolving cattle supply and resulted in cutting the brand’s fallout rate due to oversized ribeyes in half in the 2025 analysis.

Feedlot economics continue to reward heavier weights, urging cattle feeders to add days as they try to offset the high cost of feeder cattle with a favorable cost of gain. This has yielded unprecedented Prime carcass percentages in grid payment summaries, while simultaneously pressuring CAB carcass acceptance in the last two months. Despite these recent challenges, marbling remains the driver in the brand’s ability to add value to a greater proportion of Angus-type cattle.