BEEF MONTH ANTICIPATION

May is “Beef Month,” and many in the supply chain are anxious to see what this important season has in store for cattle and beef values. So far in 2026, consumers have shown strong support for the most preferred protein in the market. Yet higher cutout values may test demand as higher gasoline prices and weakening consumer sentiment raise caution.

A look at wholesale prices indicates that demand for middle meat (ie: steak) remains seasonally mixed, with CAB ribeyes recently priced at $11.80/lb., 14% cheaper than a year ago and 7% cheaper than a month ago. A strong weakening in the rib price trend in April is not uncommon, as 3 of the last 5 years saw a similar downtrend, while 2021 and 2025 featured a rapidly increasing rib market. A conservative estimate suggests wholesale ribeyes could rise above $14.00/lb. by June, adding nearly $40 of value per carcass.

Tenderloin demand typically increases modestly ahead of Mother’s Day, with just a 14% increase from February seasonal lows to early May. This year has featured a 4.5% softening of wholesale CAB tenderloin prices for the season since early March.

Strip loins are the classic “in demand” steak cut for spring, with a 26% price increase dating back to January 1 through June over the past 5 years. This year’s price pattern is developing near expectations, with a recent 6% pullback from the March high. There is plenty of room for strip loin prices to increase 15% by late June.

Shifting focus to the lower-priced steak options shows strong recent demand for these cuts. CAB^® top sirloin butts had a massive price run in the first quarter, with a 22% increase into mid-March. This uncharacteristic early demand has since corrected lower, but historic sirloin price patterns suggest a potential 15% wholesale increase by mid-June.

The loin complex is currently boosted by chart-topping ball tips, priced at an amazing 50% increase over a year ago and a stout 44% higher than early February. This popular item for Cinco de Mayo typically gets a small seasonal increase ahead of the early May holiday. This year’s unexpectedly high demand suggests broader use of the cheaper cut, even as the current $6.67/lb. wholesale average nears its record high of $6.90/lb. touched briefly during the pandemic shutdowns. Also from the loin primal, CAB^® tri-tips are recently 31% pricier than a year ago, steadily higher within seasonal expectations. In keeping with other loin items, tri-tip prices are historically expected to increase by another 23% through June.

Briskets, flanks and plates combine to make up just 15.5% of total carcass weight. Unfortunate, given that these lighter primals are seeing some of the stoutest demand, marked by major price increases, of any beef cuts. The average price increase across the three is 38% over a year ago, while the total CAB^® cutout price is just 15% over a year ago.

Carcass cutout values show a promising setup with plenty of room to run higher over the next 60 days. Underpinned by ground beef prices, grilling demand should pull not only ribeye and strip loin prices higher, but also a handful of value steak items, which will likely gain attention as consumers budget their beef buying. Anticipated spot market demand growth will be important to keep processing margins moving in the right direction as fed cattle costs mark new record-highs.