Early August in the beef market generally sees lackluster fed cattle prices and the final throes of the summer slump in boxed beef values. However, in the modern retail grocery business, it’s high time that end users make their plans for fourth-quarter holiday beef features.
With fed cattle carcass weights now set to steadily increase into at least October, carcass quality grades typically decline beginning in early August. Lighter placements and continued smaller slaughter totals will keep product supplies in check. Labor Day demand is just weeks away and with that uptick, the quality-based price spreads are likely to perform quite well.
From a cattlemen’s perspective and fed cattle management standpoint, I would look for continued wide quality grade premiums as well as Certified Angus Beef ® brand premiums on those packer grids. I would manage cattle and price cattle for our placements moving forward accordingly.
Now is the time for cattlemen to evaluate the potential for exceptionally strong premiums in high quality CAB traditional and Prime carcasses down the road. When high quality carcasses are in short supply the price spreads tend to explode. Be ready.
Two weeks ago fed steer prices reached a new record fueled by strong demand and restricted headcounts. But we knew there was a seasonal ceiling and it lasted only as quickly as one can say “seasonal trend.” Paul shares more insights in this CAB Insider.
The northern quality grade is only materially slipping as compared to the quality-rich years of 2020 and 2021. Exceptional quality premiums are not a theme in this record-high fed cattle market but above average cattle have never been a liability.
Most recent USDA quality grade data updates carcass grading trends through May 19. This is precisely the week on the calendar at which the percentage of carcasses meeting USDA Prime marbling levels have sharply decreased in each of the past three years.
Now, we’re well into the second quarter of 2023, but backing up to the first of the year, there have been two overriding trends in the fed cattle supply. The first of which has been those fewer headcounts that we’ve seen harvested on a weekly basis, down about 2.7% year to date as well.
Current carcass values are being underpinned by positive price moves from several carcass cuts, and we’ve just named a few. The classic spring price rally from ribs is in a counter-seasonal pattern and strips are modestly sideways. End users are seeking value items to partially offset shorter supplies and higher prices.
As you’re contemplating the future impact of today’s genetic decisions, consider the marketability of both feeder calves and potential replacement heifer progeny. There are plenty of sires that excel in EPD rankings for a variety of maternal, production and carcass traits to advance the goals of the cow-calf and feedyard sectors.
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