The Choice-Select price spread has long been held as the industry’s barometer for the differential in consumer demand for high-quality, well-marbled beef and the leaner counterpart consisting of only slight degrees of marbling. However, using the current Choice carcass premium to Select as a gauge for consumer demand is misleading.
Meeting the demand for the Certified Angus Beef ® brand during the 1980s was relatively easy—we would just add another packing plan to certify carcasses and increase brand supply. Today opportunities for supply growth are more challenging, given that 85% of the U.S. packing volume is licensed under the brand. Thus, supply dynamics come down to one fickle component: the quality of the cattle.
The fed cattle market was defensive last week, pressured by slippage in boxed beef values and an underperforming futures market. Taking a broader view, the USDA Prime grade has been the beneficiary of longer feeding periods with the national average Prime share at 10.5%.
Easily one of the top themes for the first half of 2024, carcass weights have averaged a 21 lb. surplus above the same time a year ago. In the past seven weeks, the weight increase bulged to average 32 lb. heavier than a year ago. Read more of the details in the CAB Insider.
Beef market veterans know the onset of summer brings on the “dog days of summer” for beef consumption trends. This means that middle meat steak items, perfect for grilling during spring holidays, begin to take a backseat.
Price spreads between quality grades are beginning to seasonally widen—as expected this time of year—but the magnitude of the spread movement is less pronounced than in recent years.
Beef Month is nearing its end and with that the anticipation of spring holiday and grilling season demand begins to tarnish. Father’s Day remains a target in mid-June and spot market wholesale beef demand will likely hold up through that period.
With the arrival of the new year the beef market will rapidly adjust to changes in consumer buying habits. This will remove demand pressure from ribs and tenderloins, realigning the contribution of these most valuable beef cuts to a smaller percentage of carcass value
Few things in cattle market trends are entirely predictable but the fact that carcass weights peak in November is as close to a sure bet as one could identify. Genetic selection for growth and advancing mature size has fueled the long-term increase in carcass weights.
We focused on fourth-quarter middle meat demand as a beef price driver in the last edition of the Insider. This is certainly the case in the current data as rib and tenderloins are pricing near their annual highs. However, a look at annual price trends across the beef carcass shows increasing contributions to CAB premiums from both ends of the carcass.
Manage Consent
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional
Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.